Jobs report for August due tomorrow morning. Any bets on the revision for July?

Here we go again, folks!  Tomorrow is the first Friday of the month, which is (usually) the day the Dem-Deep-State lackeys at the Labor Dept. release the "jobs report" for the previous month.
 
"The experts" predict that report will show a faabulous 161,000 new jobs!  ["Applause" light goes on]  Trained seals bark "Yaaaaaaaaay!!"

But then a small voice from the 39th row asks "That's a big number, but is that good or bad?  How many jobs does the economy need to create every month to keep up with immigration, eh?"

Democrat "minders" over encrypted regime radio: "Corporal!  Arrest that insurrectionist in row 39!"

Okay, since they hauled that poor bastard off to the DC gulag, to be imprisoned for three years without bail or charges being filed--in an absolute violation of the Constitution--I'll pick up the ball:

Historically ever since G.W. Bush was prezzy the economy has needed to add an average of 235,000 new jobs each month just to stay even with the slowly-growing population.

So since 161,000 is almost certainly less than 235,000 (except in Seattle, where government has declared that "Maff beez raaaacis'" an' so we gots ta bring in "ancient tribal wisdom" to find out whether 161,000 actually is "less than" 235,000.

That report--approved by the Department of Education--is expected to be released sometime around 2028, because it's a federal crime to push federal employees to do things any faster.  

So just to be able to wrap this up before 2028 can we just agree to *assume* for now that 161,000 is less than 235,000?

Great!  Now: the whole point is that if mo' pipo are enterin' duh workforce every month, an' duh new jobs aren't keepin' up wif dat, don't dat mean duh unemployment should INcrease?

Well...um...naive pipo might *think* so.  But dere's dat goofy raaaacis' maff again.  So even the non-regime "experts" predict unemployment will *drop* from 4.3% to 4.2%.

And the magic lackeys at the Labor Department will wave their hands and...agree.

Now for the fun:  Every month when the jobs report for the prior month is released--as will happen tomorrow--buried near the end of the long report is a "revision" of the job creation numbers for TWO months earlier.

And funny thing: the number of reported new jobs for two months earlier is almost always revised down, often by a whopping 25%--at least when a Democrat is president.  Reason: when a Democrat is president the Labor Department issues jobs numbers higher than real, to get gushing headlines.  

Then a month later the revised numbers come out, almost always lower than the initial report a month earlier.  But since it's from two months earlier, the Mainstream Media always ignores the bad news.

So let's look at the expert estimate for jobs created in June and July, and how the regime's jobs report compared with the forecast.

In June the number of jobs had been trumpeted as 207,000, but in August that was revised downward to 179,000, again a lot lower than needed to keep unemployment level.  (This always happens with Dem prezidents: the figure for the current month is always revised downward the next month, when the faabulous pre-revision headline has already made the Media and naive voters swoon.)

For July the Dow-Jones forecast was for 185,000 new jobs--far less than the normal 235,000 needed to keep unemployment level.  So definitely weak.  So how many jobs did the lackeys at the Labor Department "officially" tally for July, eh?  

A ghastly 114,000--a stunning 38% below the consensus estimate.  

SO...care to bet on whether that terrible number of jobs for JULY will be revised up, or down?  Place your bets.  (Posted Thursday, Sept 5th, 8 pm eastern)

Source. CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/04/jolts-july-2024.html