Saturday, January 27

Trump's inexplicably bad DACA proposal, and what it means. Prediction.

By now most of y'all have probably heard about the president's compromise offer on DACA:  Instead of offering permanent residence and citizenship to 800,000 illegals, as the Democrats had demanded, he offered to give citizenship to 1.8 MILLION.

In exchange he wanted a) funding for the wall; b) end to chain migration; and c) end to the insane, ghastly "visa lottery" that allowed random people from anywhere to come here.

How...interesting.  And all the conservative blogs are crackling with debate over what the hell he's been smoking!  After all, DACA was totally unconstitutional--created by a unilateral decree by Obama in violation of longstanding, valid U.S. immigration law. 

It was unconstitutional ab initio--from the outset. And should have been repealled on day 1 in office.  So to see Trump offering to amnesty not just the sacred 800,000, but to more than double that, is frankly bizarre.

Conservatives wonder why he did this.  Many speculate that his strategy is that he's certain the Dems will demand more--as is their iron-clad habit--and that without Democrat votes, no proposed bill will pass.

This is soothing, but even though congressional Democrats are crazy and unceasingly pushy, they're not altogether stupid, and I'm pretty sure that after they've threatened to withhold their votes, and blustered and grandstanded and bluffed and squeezed every possible nickle of concession out of the likes of Windsey Gwaham and John McCain and Jeff Flake, at the very last second they'll agree, knowing that they've won a huge victory.

These conservatives also believe that by offering to give citizenship to over twice as many illegals as the Dems demanded, then if the Dems reject the offer (as the conservative optimists expect), a measurable number of voters will be upset with the Dems for rejecting the more-generous offer and will vote R in November.

This is total wishful thinking:  That kind of subtlety is so far down on the need-heirarchy as to be imperceptible.  Not a single Democrat will vote R due to that, and only 0.001 percent of independents.

No, I'm afraid Trump's proposal is his historic Democrat ties talking.  I hate it, but it is what it is.

Unfortunately the consequences are far more wide-ranging than just giving citizenship to another 3 or 4 million illegal aliens.  Instead, Trump voters will feel--correctly--that they've been betrayed, and as a result they'll stay home in November.  Meaning the loss of congressional seats always seen in mid-term elections will be worse than usual.

And if the Dems get a majority in the House, they'll pass articles of impeachment.

Republicans will likely only lose 3 seats in the senate, but that will lose the majority.  Worse for Trump, with the Dems then having 52 seats, they only need to find (or bribe) 15 senators to win conviction and removal.  Today I can show you 10 RINO senators who would vote to remove Trump.  So it all comes down to the remaining 5 needed.

Frankly I think the Dems will impeach even if they can't identify 15 guaranteed R senate votes to convict and remove, because they're certain that impeachment alone--even if he's not removed--will cripple the rest of his term, and more important, cost the republicans the presidency in 2020 no matter how awful a candidate they nominate.

Remember, you heard it predicted here first.

 and by offering so much, it will give R's a supermajority after the November elections?


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