Saturday, November 9

Obama reaches fabulous deal to remove sanctions on Iran; wait...

[See Update at end of post.]

A decade or so ago, western governments found incontrovertible evidence that Iran had bought 50,000 high-tech gas centrifuges and was installing them in a deep underground facility the size of two football fields.

You should know about this.  But you don't.

You don't know because your betters in the guild of elite opinion-shapers in the TV networks and the NY Times and WaPo don't think this is newsworthy. 

Here's why it is:  The only use for this many gas centrifuges is to "enrich" uranium enough to produce a nuclear reaction.  Enrich it enough and you get an atomic bomb.

The lovable, trustworth mullahs running Iran smilingly tell gullible western reporers that they're not enriching uranium to make a bomb--no no no no!--but for "peaceful purposes."  These purposes are never actually specified because doing so would reveal the deception, but uranium can also be used to fuel nuclear powerplants.

The reason for skepticism is that Iran is sitting on one of the largest supplies of oil and natural gas in the world.  They could build gas-fired powerplants for a fraction of the enormous sums they're spending to enrich uranium.  And because they end up having to just burn the gas in the air anyway to produce their oil, the gas used to make electricity would be virtually free.

But no matter:  Credulous American reporters don't look that far into the story.  Cuz, peace and all.

So with that background:  With incontrovertible evidence a decade ago, the U.S. led an effort to pressure Iran to dropping its enrichment program by enacting international economic sanctions to prevent Iran from buying certain western equipment needed to build an atomic bomb.  Naturally the Iranians have sought to end these sanctions, but until Obama the program has held firm.

Now the Obama munchkins have reached an agreement with the Iranians to lift the sanctions completely, in return for...uh...a solemn promise that they'll...do something.  Or stop doing something.  Or something.

But as details of the "alleged" deal have leaked, criticism has mounted that it's a classic giveaway by Obama, which has thrown the Obama administration and their media arm into denial/deflection mode.  Here's USA Today:

Bernadette Meehan, a spokeswoman for Obama's National Security Council, said the so-called "first step" offer, "would address Iran's most advanced nuclear activities, increase transparency so Iran will not be able to use the cover of talks to advance its program, and create time and space as we negotiate a comprehensive agreement."

If Iran does not live up to its commitments, "the temporary, modest relief would be terminated, and we would be in a position to ratchet up the pressure even further by adding new sanctions," Meehan said.
Hey, sounds pretty tough, right?  I mean, "increasing transparency" is pretty strong stuff, eh?  Like the kind of transparency Obama brought to our own government, by, say, promising to publish the entire content of every bill a full 3 days before any vote, so the public would have a chance to see what's in it.  That promise had unquestionably positive results for us.  I mean, he never actually *delivered* on the promise but it helped get him elected, so there's that.

Anyway, all the news outlets are in full blather about how there is NO agreement at this point, and how if by some chance a deal is actually made it'll be really strong and tough, and won't be just a deal for the sake of making Obama look like a great foreign-policy expert.

Okay, here's my prediction:  1) The deal has already been made, in detail; 2) It lifts virtually all sanctions on Iran; 3) Any promises by Iran will be shown to be illusory; 4) The agreement won't contain any viable mechanism for verification.

And finally:  Every mainstream media organ will gush over what a great deal it is.

The emperor has no clothes.  Yet everyone in the town fawns over how fabulously he's dressed.

UPDATE, 12 November 2013:  Talks with Iran adjourned without announcing an agreement.  But I'm sticking by my prediction above, that the terms of the agreement have already been negotiated.

So today (11/16) the Boston Globe published the following:
A senior Obama administration official said Friday that a solution could be found for one of the major stumbling blocks to an agreement that would freeze Iran’s nuclear program, and that the accord might be achieved next week.

“For the first time in nearly a decade,” the official said, “we are getting close to a first step that would stop the Iranian nuclear program from advancing and roll it back in key areas.”

Talks between six world powers and Iran are scheduled to resume in Geneva on Wednesday. Western diplomats hope to complete an accord then that would halt Iran’s nuclear efforts for six months while negotiators pursue a more comprehensive agreement.
One of the predictable moves of flailing administrations is to sign what are touted as "major foreign-policy achievements," to take attention away from their failures. 

UPDATE #2, 23 Nov 2013:   Gee, what a surprise:  Just now announced  "Deal reached on Iranian nuke program." 
Iran and six world powers reached a deal early Sunday which would halt parts of Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for what was described by the Obama administration as “modest relief” from international sanctions.

Obama, speaking from the White House while his secretary of State helped ink the agreement in Geneva, called it a “first step toward a comprehensive solution."

The deal, while historic, is a six-month agreement. Republican senators in Washington warned shortly after the terms were announced that western powers were giving up too much in exchange for too little, in hopes of a longer-term deal. Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., said it would give a leading sponsor of terror “billions of dollars in exchange for cosmetic concessions.”
Stupid, stupid people.  Trusting the mullahs makes as much sense as trusting Democrats.

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