January 07, 2025

11 weeks ago NOAA made a forecast for mid-January. How'd that work out?

Last October the government agency responsible for weather forecasting (NOAA) issued their "long-term forecast" for the U.S, shown below.

As you see, NOAA predicted that the orange and light-brown areas would be "above normal"--with some areas being as much as 50% warmer than normal.  Not sure how they come up with this, since if "normal" for some areas is zero degrees C (32 F), 50% warmer would be...um...still zero C.  Of course on the Kelvin scale "50% warmer" would be over 400 C, which would boil the oceans.  But I'm sure they can explain the surprise:

Oh wait...see dat severe cold--"12-25 F below historical average"?  You should ignore that.  Didn't happen.  Roads did NOT close in Wyoming and Nebraska due to record snow.  Nope nope nope!  

And even if it wuz a tiny bit chillier than the gruberment's experts thought, it wuz NOT dere fault, citizen!  Instead it wuz caused by a thing called a "polar vortex" that only started appearing after Global Warming started to warm the planet, probably fatally.  See, we don' tol' ya global warming wuz gonna kill us all, and sure enough!  It's killing us by freezing us, which is, like TOTALLY solid Science!

Besides, you must keep in mind that no matter how much temperatures don't match the experts' forecast, they're actually always right!  That's because dey iz forcasting climate, whereas deez minor li'l swings in temperature are merely...wait for it..."weather."  An' all school kids know weather is NOT the same thing as climate!

So there ya go, citizen!  NOAA's forecast for 4.5 months ahead will turn out to be TOTALLY accurate.  Really!  They just average all the daily temps, do a "least-squares regression," multiply by the square root of pi and then apply the secret "algorithm" used by the computer to "adjust" measured temperatures to what they really were (yes, NOAA's experts are actually so smart they routinely change measured temperatures)  and BINGO!  Answer is exactly what they predicted!

It's truly amazing!  

Oh, and about them changing measured temperatures, sometimes from 60 or 70 years ago:  NOAA calls that "adjusting," which sounds a lot more...um...Sciency.  Some "climate deniers" claim this is utter nonsense, but NOAA assures us it's all done by Computer, which is related to "AI," and as everyone knows, everything written by "AI" can't be questioned.  "AI" says that's now a law, so there ya go.

SO..."climate deniers" will sneer that if duh gruberment experts could get things so wrong on a forecast made just 12 weeks ago, why would you trust them to predict temperatures a century from now, eh?  But as explained above, it doesn't matter what the daily weather is, cuz in the long term NOAA will turn out to be absolutely right.

The only time a quirk of otherwise-irrelevant temperature ("weather") matters is when a hot spell in summer causes rolling blackouts in California.  THEN it's totally reasonable for all the TV stations and the NY Times and WaPo to scold you that the heatwave totally proves the planet is warming.  Dat's jus' fine, cuz even though the argument above said dat not valid, it's more important dat we gets pipo to believe in Globull Worming.

See, duh Chyna virus showed Democrats dat if dey kin jus' scare Americans enough, dey can get Americans to put up with literally ANY insane policy.  

 

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