February 24, 2024

EV-maker loses $5.4 BILLION last year; stock price is off 92%, but Bezos...so everyone...

Classic case study of either "tulip bubble" or "emperor's new clothes"

You believe whatever the biden regime and the Media tell you--and that's understandable.  After all, you have no reason to doubt what they say, right?  What *possible* reason would they have to lie to voters, right?

Oh sure, there's an election this fall, but that's no reason for 'em to *lie* to ya, is it?  Of course not, citizen!

With that in mind, I wanna show you yet another of the thousands of examples of the extraordinary lengths to which smart people are influenced by people they trust, even though just a moment of thought would show that the so-called "smaht pipo" either aren't playing straight (i.e. have a hidden agenda) or are just investing because some big player did.

The play is a startup maker of an electric truck, an electric van and one car:  Rivian.

Now, every good democrat knows that EVs are the wave of the future, eh?  For awhile any company that announced it was gonna build EVs could sell out an IPO.  And sure enough, fortunes were made, and journalists were *very* impressed.

Ford Motor invested $1.2 billion early, planning to build the new design at one of its factories.  That plan was quickly shelved.

Amazon--owned by the world's richest man, Bezos--bought over ten percent of the company--and then in October of 2019--two years before Rivian went public--Amazon (conveniently, as Rivian's major shareholder) announced plans to BUY 100,000 Rivian vans to deliver purchases to Amazon customers.

Now, when the world's richest man announces his company has bought a huge stake in a company that hasn't yet gone public--and immediately announces plans to buy 100,000 of that company's costly vehicles, ya think every big investor took notice?  Of course.

Two years later--November of 2021--Rivian had its IPO, at $78.  Within a DAY it had surged to $130, which indicates a buying frenzy.  (Tulip mania, anyone?)  All the big names were sure Rivian would be the next Tesla.

But then a bitch called Reality made an appearance.

The company lost billions every year: over $5.4 BILLION last year alone.  Has never even come close to making a profit.

It announced that it expects to build the same number of vehicles this year as last.  But after laying off 18% of its workforce, and investing in certain production-line improvements it expects to only lose $2.7 billion this year, which is half of what it lost last year.  So at that rate it would be profitable...real soon.

The most recent news, and the announcement that the company will lay off another 6% of its workforce pushed Rivian shares down more than 15.6% in after-hours trading.  The stock closed at $10 or so.

So what happened next?  The world's richest man ordered his company to increase its holdings to 158 million shares, making it by far the largest shareholder.  Investment giant BlackRock and mutual fund giant T Rowe Price have both increased their stakes.

Tulip.  Mania.

Now: As should be obvious, Amazon/Bezos got in way before the IPO, so are still showing a profit.  Amazon has no incentive to sell its stake.  So other normally-canny investors see Bezos and think, "He must know something we don't."  Makes sense, eh?

And now we get to "the emperor's new clothes," in which all the "adults" see that the emperor is naked, but having been told that only smaht, sophisticated citizens can SEE the magic garments, no one wants to state what seems way obvious.  Finally a child--clearly unworried about not being thought smart or sophisticated--states the obvious.

Now: the beauty of a free market is that people are free to invest in whatever they wish.  Problem is, we no longer have a free market.  Instead, the gruberment--the biden regime--tilts the scales to favor certain companies over others.

Imagine what would happen to the price of Rivian stock if the Postal Service announced plans to buy the company's entire van production for the next three years.  Or the Defense Department, which is eagerly pursuing the EV craze.

So Rivian could still conceivably turn the corner and become "the next Tesla."  Based on the hard, unforgiving numbers that seems highly unlikely.  But all the investors look at the big dogs and think..."They must know something."

Tulip mania.

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