May 13, 2018

At a time when Dems are threatening impeachment, 30 GOP congresscritters aren't seeking re-election


Historically, incumbent members of congress who run for re-election are in fact re-elected something like 99.5% of the time.  Hell, many win even after being convicted of serious crimes.  Basically once a politician wins, unless they get caught in a scandal they've got that job for life. 

So except for the 1 percent or so who are fed up with the corruption in DC and want to return to sanity back home, why would any of 'em voluntarily give up the power that comes with the position?

This is particularly true for members of the majority party in congress: Since they've got the votes to get things passed, they're more effective, and their jobs are a lot more fun.

With that said, someone has posted a list of congresscritters who've announced they won't run for re-election this November.  I'd heard of a few of these, but had no idea this many Repubs had decided not to run.  Please note that I'm only half-way thru verifying the list below, so can't vouch for total accuracy.

Not seeking re-election to Senate:
All Republicans:
Bob Corker (TN): Corker is a RINO.  He's supporting the Democrat nominee for his senate seat instead of Republican Marsha Blackburn because he claims the latter is too conservative.

Jeff Flake (AZ)--age 55.  Flake is ending his first senate term.  He's a RINO who has voted 4 times to extend Obozo's totally unconstitutional violation of U.S. law, cunningly named "DACA" instead of "Amnesty for Illegals."  Flake has said he'll donate to the campaign of the Democrat senator from West Virginia.  Supported Obama's Iran nuclear bribe, and opposed Trump's withdrawal.  He's a total fake--never had any actual Republican values.  Still, one wonders why he's not running for a likely re-election.

Orrin Hatch (UT)--At the age of 84 he's overdue for retirement.

House:
Republicans (30!):

Bill Shuster (PA)--Age 57.  Shuster chairs the powerful House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. Historically, committee chairs have raked in LOTS of donations.  But if he had won re-election Shuster would have lost his chairmanship because of House GOP rules that impose a three-term limit for chairmen.

Bob Goodlatte (VA)--Age 65.  Chair of Judiciary Committee.  As with Shuster, would have lost chairmanship due to GOP House rules.

Jeb Hensarling (TX)--Age 60.  Chair of the Financial Services Committee.  Would have lost chair position.

Lamar Smith (TX)--Age 70.  Chair of the Science, Space and Technology Committee.  As with the other 3 above, would have lost chairmanship.  And at age 70 one can understand wanting to retire.

Darrell Issa (CA)--age 64.  This is another retirement that's puzzling.  Issa has been in congress for 17 years and is seemingly in good health.  At 64 the line of "Want to spend time with my family" seems less convincing.

Dave Reichert (WA)--age 67.  He's in his 7th term (14 years).

David Trott (MI)--age 57.  Has only served two terms (4 years).

Dennis Ross (FL)--Age 58.  Has served 8 years.  Planned to quit after 10 but quitting a bit earlier.

Edward Royce (CA)--age 66.  Has served 25 years.  Chair of the Foreign Affairs committee, he's another GOP chairman who would have lost his chairmanship by GOP rules if re-elected.

Gene Green(TX)--age 70.  Has been in congress for 26 years.  Seemingly in good health.

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL)--age 65.  Has been in congress for 29 years.

Jim Bridenstine (OK)--age 42.  Trump shot himself in the foot by appointing young, rising-star Bridenstine to head NASA after the latter had served just 6 years in congress.  If the Dems succeed in winning a one-vote majority in the House in November, and vote to impeach, Trump may have second thoughts about losing this Republican vote.  Yes, Bridenstine was a Navy pilot for 9 years, so isn't an unreasonable pick to head NASA.  But not worth losing a Republican vote.  

Joe Barton (TX)--age 68.  Has been in congress 31 years.  After a nude pic of him was posted on an anonymous Twitter account, Barton announced he wouldn't run for re-election.  So this one's understandable.

Charles W. Dent (PA)--age 57.  Dent was in congress for 13 years.  In September 2017 Dent announced that he would not seek re-election.  Then last month Dent announced that “after discussions with my family and careful reflection” he would retire this month (May) and wouldn't serve out the remainder of his term.  This is off-the-charts unusual.  Deciding not to run for re-election is odd enough, but without a scandal, to quit mid-term is almost unheard-of.  Still looking for a good explanation on this one.

Lynn Jenkins (KS)--age 54.  In congress for 9 years.  Official reason for resigning is to "look for opportunities in the private sector."  Interestingly, she announced her decision not to run for re-election three days after Trump took office.  This seems odd because if she was put off by Trump she could have opposed him more effectively by running for one more term.

Frank LoBiondo (NJ)--age 72.   In congress for 24 years.  Official reason for not seeking re-election was that he was tired of "gridlock" in congress.

Gregg Harper (MS)--age 61.  In congress for 9 years.  Chair of the House Administration Committee, and if re-elected he would have lost the chairmanship due to House GOP time limits on chairmen.  While I understand that the loss of the powerful position would be a downer, Administration isn't normally thought of as that powerful a position.  Guy could have stayed another 8 to 10 years and gotten another chairmanship.  This one strikes me as very unusual.

Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ)--age 72.  A 23-year incumbent and chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee--truly a license to print money.  Almost certainly a RINO:  He opposed the GOP tax-reform bill passed last December that has showered workers with either juicy bonuses or "crumbs," as Nancy Pelosi described them.  The guy is reported to have "preferred to try to reach bipartisan consensus," which is code for "supports Democrat policies."  When he announced he wouldn't seek re-election numerous top Democrats issued statements or gave interviews calling him "a friend"--code for "supports our policies."

Ryan Costello (PA)--age 41.  Only in his 4th year in congress.  Faced re-election in a district cunningly re-drawn by a federal judge that moved it from "leans Republican" to "solidly Dem."

Sam Johnson (TX)--age 87.  Has been in congress for 27 years.  At 87 this one is understandable.

Ted Poe (TX)--age 69.  In his 13th year in congress.  Said he wants to spend more time with his grandchildren.

Thomas Rooney (FL)--age 48.  Not a Trump fan.  In an interview with the NY Times Rooney said "he did not know if he would run for re-election next year, but said he was reluctant to be too critical of Trump, in case he did. Like many of his colleagues, he is ambivalent about the president, but his frustrations with Washington long predate Trump's arrival."

Blake Farenthold(TX)--Resigned last month after a sex scandal.  This one is obvious, understandable.

Patrick Meehan (PA)--age 62.  Resigned after being accused of making "unwanted sexual advances" to an aide. 

Patrick J. Tiberi (OH)--age 55.  In congress 17 years. Left in January without finishing his term, to spend more time with family.

Tim Murphy (OH)--age 65.  Sex scandal.

Trent Franks (AZ)--age 60.  Resigned end of January of this year following what appears to be a very minor sex-related claim--that he discussed his desire to find a surrogate mother with two staffers.

Jason Chaffetz (UT)--age 51.  Resigned 11 months ago after just 9 years in congress.  Another bizarre mid-term resignation.  Chaired the powerful House Oversight committee.  Watching video of Chaffetz cross-examining shit-head bureaucrats in DOJ, DEA, BLM and other fed agencies run by Obama holdovers (a.k.a. the Deep State") it's clear that he angered lots of bureaucrats.  Most people were mystified by his abrupt, mid-term resignation.  Democrat rumor-mills claimed he'd been caught in an affair.

Trey Gowdy (SC)--Age 53. Chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.  One of 10 Republican committee chairs who have decided not to run again.  But unlike the almost all the others, Gowdy was NOT at the end of his 3rd term as chair, so would have not have lost his  chairmanship if he'd been re-elected.  Which makes his decision not to seek re-election even more unusual.

Paul Ryan (WI)--Age 48.  Current Speaker of the House.  This is probably the hardest to fathom.  The Speaker of the House is arguably the most powerful position in congress, and I don't know of any speaker who has given up the position voluntarily in the modern era.

Democrats (12):
Carol Shea-Porter 
Elizabeth Esty -
John Delaney  
John J. Duncan, Jr. -
Luis V. Gutierrez (IL)
Niki Tsongas
Rick Nolan
Robert Brady
Ruben J. Kihuen
Sandy Levin
John Conyers, Jr.
Louise Slaughter

I'm not concerned about why the 12 Dems won't be seeking re-election, because it wouldn't surprise me that out of 435 seats, 12 from each party might decide not to seek re-election.  But it seemed to me that 30 Republicans was about 2.5 times more than the historical average.

I suspect at least a dozen or more of the GOP decisions were caused by a threat to expose wrong-doing by the member.

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