Analyst thinks Iran has major problems regardless of who ends up running the country

For years David Goldman posted his analyses on the web under the pen-name "Spengler."  Had some hits and some misses.  Over a PJMedia he looks at the massive anti-regime demonstrations in Iran, but from a rather different perspective.

As Goldman sees it, Iran has a host of huge but largely unrecognized problems, some of which will likely prove to be existential challenges.  Read the whole thing; meanwhile here's my edited version:

As we watch the demonstrations in Iran, it would seem that regardless of the immediate outcome, the most probable future for Iran is crisis.  Iran has the fastest-aging population of any country in the world, and among the lowest fertility rates.  It has a youth unemployment rate of 35% (adjusted for warehousing young people in state-run diploma mills). 

But perhaps the most immediate danger is that it's running out of water.

The shortage of water is worst in rural areas and small towns. The river that runs through Isfahan, a legendary city of gardens in the desert, has run dry.  Wells are failing, forcing cities to draw more water from rivers.  

The Islamic Revolution saw massive nationwide mismanagement, as the mullahs installed managers based on religious zeal instead of competence.  Despite the Obama administration sending the mullahs $150 Billion in cash, and lifting sanctions on oil exports, the government is nearly bankrupt.

The mullahs pressured banks to lend vast sums to regime cronies for real estate speculation.  As a result, 45 percent of Iranian bank loans are toxic, and the cost of cleaning up the bank mess is estimated at half of Iran's GDP.  A wave of bank failures has wiped out the savings of millions of ordinary Iranian citizens.

The country's pension funds are bankrupt. The civil service pension fund has only 100 employees paying in for every 120 employees receiving a pension. The government is on the hook for the rest.

Combine this with declining birthrates and it's apparent the demographic crisis is likely to get far worse.  And nothing is likely to change that in time.

Iran has plenty of smart people, and two excellent engineering universities.  But as you could predict, virtually all the top graduates leave the country. 

There may theoretically be a way to solve the numerous existential problems described above, but no collection of Shi'ite mullahs is going to find it. The most likely outcome is that Iran will undergo economic and social collapse.

Interesting stuff.