Tuesday, June 7

Economy added just 38,000 jobs in May; concensus estimate had expected 155,000. Media unconcerned.

Unless you're a political junkie you probably don't pay any attention to the monthly job report issued by the Gruberment's Labor Department.  I don't blame you--they're not exactly exciting.  But they tell you a lot about what's happening.

For those of you too busy making a living or raising your kids to wade thru that stuff, here's a summary:  Businesses constantly fail or downsize, producing people who need a job.  And new high school and college grads enter the labor market each year.  Just to find jobs for those in both classes, the concensus of economists is that businesses need to create or fill about 225,000 new jobs each month. 

Again, that's just to stay even.  If fewer new jobs are created, the number of unemployed Americans should rise.

Economists are paid to estimate the strength of the economy, and to estimate the number of new jobs they expect each month.  For May the concensus estimate was 155,000 or so.  Turns out the economy didn't do quite that well last month.

In fact last month the economy added just 38,000 jobs.

No, I didn't drop a "1" before the 3.  The official figure--reported by the Democrat minions in the Labor Department--was just 38,000.

Furthermore, the same Labor Department that reports last month's jobs numbers also revises the initial job creation figures for the two months prior to the one just ended, to account for later updates.  And virtually every time during the emperor's reign, these revisions are in one direction:  Down.

Sure enough, the recent jobs report revised March and April figures downward--by 59,000.

So they 'vaporized' 20,000 more jobs in correcting too-generous jobs reports from prior months than the entire economy added in May.  Interesting...
 Now: For the past seven years Team Obama and their media supporters have kept telling us that the economy is booming!  Absolutely roaring.  Wow, too, too, great!  And true to form, all the major networks reported that this was simply not possible.  "There has to be an error someplace."  Anything to support their faaabulous emperor and his divinely brilliant policies.

For example, after a one-sentence lede 'graf here's how the LA Times quickly jumped to Obama's defense:
But economists cautioned not to overreact to a single bad jobs report...."It’s kind of a yellow flag, I wouldn't call it a red flag,” said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services.  “It’s not time to panic,” he said.

Still, the weak numbers bolster Republican arguments that President Obama and his fellow Democrats haven’t been able to fully revive the economy after the Great Recession.
Note the cunning inference in italics:  According to the Times "Obama and his fellow Democrats"  have actually revived the economy, but the mean Rethuglicans "argue" that he and the Dems haven't been able to do so fully.

One wonders how the Times would have reported this exact performance had it occurred under G.W. Bush.

So with the disastrous job performance, you might expect unemployment to rise.  Surprise!  The "official" unemployment rate declined--not just by a tenth of a percent, but by a whopping 0.3 percent.

And most of you believe that, because you're convinced "your" government--like your emperor--wouldn't lie to you--at least not so brazenly.

Did we mention that over 37% of work-force-age Americans have given up looking for work?  Yep.  That's the highest percentage in 40 years, and the highest actual numbers of people ever.  And even the Times realizes they'll lose all credibility if they don't at least mention it.  So they do--in the 30th paragraph:
...a large number of people dropped out of the labor force for the second straight month.  About 458,000 people gave up looking for work in May, pushing the percentage of working-age Americans in the labor force to near a four-decade low of 62.6%.

That was the main reason why the unemployment rate in May fell to 4.7%, the lowest since 2007.

So to review:  Economy needs about 225,000 new jobs each month.  The concensus forecast was for about 155,000, which is way under the break-even level.  But in the brave new world of governmedia no one calls this a shitty economy, because that would make the emperor and his party look bad.

Then when the real figure is released showing just 38,000 new jobs--less than one-fourth of the concensus forecast, and barely one-sixth of the level needed to break even--it barely gets a mention on the nightly network "news."

And keep in mind that these numbers came from the emperor's own Labor Department--which has every reason to make the emperor look great, and no reason at all to bias their reports against his brilliance.

Ah, but not to worry:  Next month they can always revise those numbers up the whatever the governmedia thinks will look good.


Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home