The negotiated settlement of the war in Ukraine, courtesy of master negotiator (DJT)

I love to try to predict the future.

Democrat:  "Yew cain't predick duh future!  Dat jus' crazy-talk, deplorable!  Nobody can predick duh future!"

That's what makes it so much fun to do.  So thank you SO much for playing.

Okay, here's what almost none of you knows:  Russia's cash reserves have dropped every month since they invaded Ukraine.  Cuz war is unbelievably expensive.  Spending more than the country exported every month put huge pressure on the ruble, so Russia's central bank responded by "propping up: the ruble to try to maintain its buying power globally.

That task has dangerously depleted Russia's foreign-currency reserves.  And what that means is, Russia is now under huge economic pressure to end the war. 

In the last three weeks Putin has been quoted as saying he's willing to end it essentially at the current front lines.  Zelenskyy has said he's open to negotiations.  So everything is in place for an end to this long, ghastly, unnecessary war.  It's likely we'll see everything signed by March.

(Over a year ago the biden regime rejected a negotiated end to the fighting.  You never heard about that.) 

Background: As everyone surely knows by now, Ukraine and Russia share a border.  The population of four administrative regions ("oblasts") bordering Russia--Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia--are roughly 50% ethnic Russians, and for over a decade a guerilla war raged between ethnic Ukes and armed Russian "separatists."  Since around 2014 most of Luhansk Oblast and part of Donetsk had been controlled by pro-Russian separatists

On Feb 24, 2020, Russia invaded Ukraine.  On September 30, 2022, Russia declared that the four regions listed above were now part of Russia.  The boundaries of the areas to be annexed were not defined; Russian officials said they'd be defined later. 

None of the oblasts were fully under Russian control at the time of the declaration, nor since. If limited to areas then under Russian control, Russia would have seized about 15% of Ukraine's territory--an area roughly the size of Portugal. 

You need the background above to understand the negotiated solution set out below.

Here's how I predict it's gonna shake out:  Putin is demanding the Ukes give up all four of the "oblasts" noted above--much of which they don't fully control.  He's likely to settle for half of the two major "oblasts" named--Donetsk and Luhansk, since those were the areas where the percentage of ethnic Russians was highest.  Since one of the reasons Russia invaded was allegedly to protect ethnic Russians in both those areas, then if the Ukes give up the eastern half of both provinces, Putin can say he achieved one of the two major goals of the invasion.

Putin's other demand--possibly the more important--needs some explaining:  Seems the Obozo regime offered to let Ukraine join NATO.  That's critical because the distance between Ukrainian territory and Moscow is about 280 miles.  Think about that: How would the U.S. react if China stationed troops and missiles in Mexico, 50 miles from the U.S. border?  (If you're unclear on that, see "Cuban missile crisis.")

Putin clearly warned the U.S. he wouldn't accept Ukraine as a NATO member, but the corrupt Obozo and biden regimes ignored the explicit warning and kept pushing the offer.  One reason certain elements of the Deep State refused to drop that invitation was almost certainly the corrupt Vindman brothers--twin brothers who were Lt.Colonels in the U.S Army stationed in Ukraine, and both really dirty.

The brothers are Ukrainian by birth, and were pushing for NATO membership both because that would make Russia less likely to invade, and because with their high-level connections in both the U.S. Army and the Ukrainian elite, they stood to make millions from selling NATO the services needed to quarter troops and weapons.  

Of course from NATO's perspective, there are no substantive benefits to having Ukraine as a member.  But the Obozo and biden regimes never withdrew the offer.  

So Putin's only other substantive demand (as far as I'm aware) is that Ukraine not be offered NATO membership for 20 years.  Since bringing Ukraine into NATO offers no substantive benefits to NATO,  conceding on that point clearly costs us nothing--but obviously, don't say that.  Instead Trump says "We understand that this is a reasonable term, and we accept it."  

Similarly, not giving Ukraine NATO membership doesn't expose the Ukes greater risk of Russia invading again, since the war has been a huge drain on Russia, both financially and in terms of casualties.  Russia has clearly had enough of this war and does NOT want to go back in that briar patch again.

Now all Trump has to do is the details.  (That's sarcasm): Let's suppose the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are divided into eastern and western halves, with the eastern halves becoming part of Russia.  Residents living on the "wrong side" of the line could either stay put or find counterparts on the other side who also wanted to switch, and swap homes tax-free.  Or they could sell and buy on the other side.

Since moving is a huge pain, I suspect many people would stay put.  But the main thing would be that by giving 'em a choice, it makes them "take ownership" of their decision.

Reconstruction:  Obviously Ukraine has suffered terribly from being invaded, and all the missile strikes in formerly lovely cities.  By contrast, damage to Russian cities has been minimal.  So it's reasonable and just for Russia to help Ukraine re-build.  But instead of couching this as a penalty, let Putin announce that just as the U.S. used the Marshall Plan to help re-build Germany (similar funds were used to help Japan, though not part of the Marshall Plan), Russia agrees to voluntarily contribute X dollars per year for Y years to help rebuild and repair Ukraine's bombed cities and towns.

Trump will have quietly suggested this, and will have already approached NATO members, urging them to appear truly humbled by Putin's unexpected and generous offer.  With this heads-up, the heads of the NATO nations pledge to contribute varying percentages of Russia's pledge.  "It's cheaper than sending weapons!" says Trump.  

To honor this generous offer by Putin "and the people of Russia," the U.S. agrees to drop all economic sanctions immediately, by Executive Order in the U.S., and of course the European nations will be eager to do the same--essentially re-energizing the Russian economy.   Trump further pledges the U.S. will contribute 90% of what Russia actually spends.  When the Democrats squeal that this is a crazy waste of tax dollars Trump has the reply ready:  "You were fine spending $150 billion to kill 600,000 people (both sides) but balk at half a billion a year to rebuild?  Really?"

Trump also promises the U.S. won't oppose re-starting the one remaining intact Nordstream gas pipeline from Russia to Europe, and won't oppose repairing and re-starting the three that were blown up, if repairs are even possible.  (As an aside, dropping sanctions on Russian oil and gas sales will mean China--which now buys Russian oil and gas at a discount from market price--will lose that discount.  Do NOT mention this.)  

So...Zelenskyy is hailed for leading the heroic soldiers of his smaller country in a successful defense against a far more powerful opponent, and in agreeing to give up territory in exchange for desperately needed aid to rebuild the country.  He and Putin shake hands at Camp David.  Tears are shed over the valor of those who fought, and civilians who died.  Trump gives a speech expressing grief for those killed but hope for the future, pointing to how, 50 years after the epic battle of Gettysburg, Union and Confederate veterans of that battle met on the same battlefield, hugged...and wept.  Pointing to the gleaming, prosperous cities of both Germany and Japan following the devastation of WW2.  

Now for the catch: the Democrats will claim credit.  Here's almost exactly what they'll say: "None of this would have been possible if we hadn't insisted on continuing to supply the Ukrainians with American weapons--tanks, F-16's, missiles.  So really, we deserve the credit."   And Trump will have a ready reply:  "Yes, your voting to give aid to Ukraine kept them in the fight.  But had I been president this could have ended two years earlier.  And I believe the record shows Republicans never used the filibuster to block those bills sending weapons to Ukraine.  Same for the GOP-majority House.  Our party understands the importance of defense very well, thank you.  Any questions?"

One final touch: the U.S. will have a 20-person team in Ukraine logging all aid actually delivered, whether materials or money.  Automatic 20-year prison terms for anyone caught stealing aid, or covering up for anyone who does.

Have I missed anything?  If you've got contacts in the transition team, feel free to send 'em a link.