Dems ready to sink Trump: Bank failures caused by real-estate loans will hit in 2025

I love to predict the future--not from tea leaves or ouija boards or anything weird, but from plain ol' math.

See, huge systems--whether natural systems like oceans and continents, or economies--have huge inertia: like a drifting super-tanker, they change direction slowly, but once they get moving in the new direction it's equally hard to make 'em do something else.

So...the U.S. economy is obviously massive, and has huge inertia.  When rules--either laws or banking regs or the price of energy or food or whatever do things to an economy, the results are totally predictable.  And yet the so-called experts often totally ignore those totally predictable outcomes, because mentioning them would upset...someone powerful.

So with that background:  Conservatives won in November, and the Dems and their Media allies are obsessed with the notion of getting revenge and destroying Trump.  And since much of the revulsion at the biden regime was due to shitty Democrat policies, much depends on how the economy performs after Trump takes over.

So here's some news:  It's about to crash.  Here's why:

As everyone who pays attention knows, ever since duh Chyna virus and the Democrat-ordered lockdowns commercial real estate in the wealthy cities--places where a single tall, palatial office building can cost a billion dollars--has been getting clobbered.  As of October 1 of this year vacancy rates in pricey office space in some key cities like San Francisco was almost 35%.

Virtually all big buildings are built by borrowing money.  Since the cash flow projections of most big buildings are based on assumed occupancy rates of 90% or more, that reduces the income of the building's owner by a LOT.  And in many cases the owners have been unable (or perhaps unwilling?) to make their loan payments.  With me so far?

Now for the banks: When borrowers miss more than a certain number of loan payments, Federal banking regulations require banks to classify those loans as "non-performing," because more than a certain number of such loans put a bank at risk of failing.

But banks have a loophole:  by adding the missed payments to the loan principal they can somehow avoid classifying a loan as non-performing.  Not sure this is entirely legal, but apparently LOTS of big banks have been are doing this--and the regulators seem to be looking the other way.

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, about $950 billion in commercial real estate (CRE) mortgages are set to mature in 2024.  But the value of office buildings is falling at the same time that borrowing costs are rising, making banks wary of making new loans to refinance maturing ones.

As one agency dryly put it, "Changes in post-pandemic behavior have put pressure on CRE borrowers."   Gee, ya think?

So what now?  I suspect most banking regulators are Deep-State operatives, so will be eager to crash the new Trump economy.  They can do that by announcing that they'll be enforcing "mark-to-market" rules, meaning no more looking the other way on non-performing loans.  But this will also endanger the stock market, so the Deep State has to walk a fine line: trigger just enough worry to keep businesses from investing lots of money, keeping the economy crippled, but not enough to crash the market too badly.

But we're not done yet, not by a long shot:  Office space is just the first domino.  Yes, 35% of the city's office space is vacant, but even companies still downtown often have a lot fewer employees coming in to work..That has killed damn near every street-level business on the city's once-crowded sidewalks.  The loss of all those businesses has cut city sales tax revenue dramatically.

Cities like San Francisco already have high city taxes and fees.  When tax revenue drops, city pols have to choose between raising rates on whatever businesses are left, or cutting budgets.

Because they're Democrats, they'll cut salaries for themselves and for city bureaucrats, right?

Of course not. What happens is that they cut services: cops, fire, street maintenance.  But not "fat counselors"--whose job is NOT to get people to lose weight, but just the opposite: to help 'em feel good about being fat.  Seriously.  Remember it's San Francisco, home of the moonbat.

So who will ride to the Dems' rescue?  

Of course: Gavin Newsom and millions of state taxpayers in less-corrupt small cities.  Newsom can't afford to have San Francisco look bad if he expects to run for prezzy, so he'll ORDER that a billion or two of state tax revenue be given to the city.  The stated objective will be to house the homeless, or give druggies counseling, or...anything, really.  Cuz it won't be spent for that, but will be used to pay for city salaries and services, so the city can continue to give money to tranny drug addicts.