November 10, 2023

Experts say this week's "auction" of 30-year Treasury bonds was "a disaster"

Yesterday the Treasury Department held a routine "auction" to sell a modest $24 Billion in government paper ("bonds") to investors around the world.

Several publications called the results "a disaster," for two reasons:  First, it's called an "auction" because the government offers the bonds at whatever they think a good interest rate is.  Then if there aren't enough buyers, they raise the rate a fraction--like 0.02 percent or so--and see if enough buyers bite.

In this auction not enough buyers were found even after raising the offered interest rate significantly. Even then, buyers didn't offer to buy the needed amount, forcing "primary dealers" to buy 25% of the debt.  "Primary dealers" are major U.S. banks who are "buyers of last resort" who are required to buy.

In other words the Treasury Department was unable to find enough buyers for its bonds at an interest rate locked in for 30 years, even after raising the offered rate significantly.

In case you're still not getting it, that's a signal that other nations are beginning to shy away from U.S. bonds because they're worried about the gruberment's constant insistence on spending far more money every year than it takes in.  And given that lack of discipline there are only two options:

  1. government forced to offer ever-higher interest rates; or
  2. government essentially "prints" money it doesn't have.

We're already paying a trillion dollars every year just in interest on our nation's vast debt, so higher interest rates will soon cause interest payments to eat up half the annual budget.  So...disaster.

Or the gruberment could just "print" more money--which it doesn't have.  That will cause massive inflation, followed a year or so later by a thing called "hyper-inflation," in which prices double every WEEK.  We've actually seen this happen in pre-WW2 Germany, and in Venezuela around 2010.

One immediate effect is to destroy the value of savings, since the skyrocketing prices means currency is essentially worthless unless spent that same day. 

I've been posting about this huge problem for years, but of course no one reads this, so there ya go.  Frankly I'm surprised the biden regime hasn't ordered that you can't post political comments or analysis on the Net without a government license costing, say, $25,000 per year.  See, regime say it know gummint can't censors, but license not censorship, cuz anyone kin buy a license, eh?

See, citizen?  NOT censorship.  Jus' like if gummint wanna disarm ya:  No need to go thru the hassle of amending that silly "Constitution" thingy to outlaw guns!  Not at all!  Just put a small federal tax on all ammunition!  Say, $500 per bullet.

Finally, in the wake of the "disaster" at the Treasury 30-year bond auction bond rating agency Moodys issued this statement.  See if you can figure out what it means:

"Continued political polarization within US congress raises the risk that successive governments will not be able to reach consensus on a fiscal plan to slow the decline in debt affordability."

 "...will not be able to reach consensus on a fiscal plan to slow the decline in debt affordability"?  Does that strike any of you as extremely...convoluted?  Yep, and there's a reason.  It's what I said in the post above the quote...but it's camouflaged so as not to spook the rubes.

Note that phrase "slow the decline."  They don't say "to bring spending back down to receipts," because duh gummint is spending something like 30 percent more each year than it takes in.  So no serious person believes congress is willing to cut spending by that amount.  Instead Moodys just bleats about the chance of "slowing the decline."  

Yeah, anyone think that will happen?  Not unless they start dying mysteriously--say through home invasions, or falling out of hotel windows or something.  If four or five were top die mysteriously, the rest might get the message.  Of course I'm NOT advocating any citizen do that!  See, that would be wrong!  The FBI might stop arresting parents at school board meetings long enough to actually investigate!  But maybe "the hand of God" might intervene?

Just kidding: even if that happened, no congresscritter would budge by even a million dollars in appropriations.  They love the power to bribe voters--with the voters' own tax dollars!  Is this a great country or what?  

 

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