March 16, 2020

What's the *real* increase in risk due to corona virus?

Coronavirus?  "OMG, we're all gonna die!"

Obviously for those who get it, it's serious.  But how big a RISK is it compared to other risks? 

A good place to begin is, how many Americans do you think die each year in the U.S. from all causes?

Extrapolating the most recent year for which stats are published, looks like about 2.9 million per year.

So far the U.S. has logged roughly 60 deaths ascribed to the virus.  If the virus were eventually to kill 12,000 Americans--the same number as died from the "swine flu" of 2009--that would be just over four-tenths of one percent of all deaths.

Obviously if you're one of the fatalities that's significant, but is that statistical increase in the risk of dying worth worrying about?

Also: The vast majority of the fatalities have been over 70, and many had impaired immune systems.  If you're not in that category your increased risk plummets to something under one-tenth of one percent--again, seems like a negligible increase in risk.

While we're clearly still in the early stages, so far the media are publishing "OMG we'll all be killed" stories.  Contrast that with how the media treated the swine flu--a.k.a. "H1N1:"  No one panicked.  It was treated as just another in the yearly outbreaks of flu.  Killed 12,000 Americans.

Liberals will claim the only reason for the HUGE difference in the way the media treats the two virii is that coronavirus is WAY more contagious and fatal.  While it's true that the initial numbers suggest that corona has a somewhat higher fatality rate, drugs that help reduce that rate are being found every week. 

But the Mainstream Media has printed predictions of two million deaths in the U.S. due to this virus.

We'll see.  Of course if the number is just one percent of that, the Mainstream Media will claim that they nevah believed the larger figure but were simply reporting some expert forecast.

I'm curious:  How many in the Mainstream Media published any criticism of Obozo's total inaction on the swine flu?  No quarantine, no cancellations, no nothing.  Just ignore it and eventually it'll go away.  But now?

"OMG!  We're all gonna die!!!"

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