"Dat hazn't happened, so it can't." Can anyone spot the flaw in that "reasoning"?

There's a psychological thing you should know about, called "normalcy bias."  It's the belief that broadly speaking, every day is much like the days before it, so we don't expect things to change much--and we act accordingly.

That's rational.  Problem is, it causes many people to ignore even the most screamingly obvious signs that things are about to go sideways really badly.  Most people absolutely sneer at smarter people warning about some obvious catastrophe about to hit.  But the hand-wavers never bother trying to rebut the facts cited by the others, instead just doing the equivalent of "That hasn't ever happened before, so it...um...can't."

The fallacy of that "reasoning" shouldn't require explaining.  It's the kind of thinking that allowed WW1 and 2, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, to surprise almost everyone.  Same for Hamas attacking Israel on 7 October.

Now: For over a decade China has been engaged in arguably the greatest military buildup in history.  China's army (the "People’s Liberation Army") has built vast underground complexes, modernized air defenses and built the world’s largest navy.  And it boasts the largest ballistic missile force in the world.

China has dropped references to the "peaceful reunification with Taiwan."  Leftists want you to believe this means China has lost interest in that long-sought goal.  Realists realize that's horseshit.  They've stopped saying "peaceful reunification" so the world doesn't see what utter liars they are when they invade.

Anyone who studies history sees that national leaders sometimes do irrational things, which often slide into disaster.

A huge factor bearing on future conflict is the belief by our opponents that while the U.S. postures and threatens (biden's "don't" and obozo's "red line" in Syria, both ignored), it's almost certain that they're convinced no Democrat president of the U.S. would ever retaliate for literally any provocation.

Unless you're a student of military history, you probably don't realize how dangerous that is, and what it implies:  That belief means adversaries have totally discounted the possibility of U.S. action if they attack--which hugely increases the chances of such attacks.

Unless you're a veteran or have a child in the military, you have no idea what awful shape our armed forces are in.  After the biden regime ordered the services to use "preferred pronouns and threatened service members if they so much as "liked" a post on a conservative social media account, enlistment is way down.  Not one branch is meeting its recruiting goals.  Re-enlistment of active-duty troops is also way down, even with the military offering huge bonuses.  

In many branches less than a third of combat resources (mainly aircraft and ships) are actually combat-ready.  Even in embattled Ukraine, young men are choosing to flee the country to avoid being drafted--just as Americans fled to Canada during the Vietnam war.

China has no such problems.  "Preferred pronouns" are a curious joke.  Is it any wonder that China's leaders have concluded the U.S. is degenerate?  

Young people--and particularly Americans--have no idea how near a thing World War Two was.  Western politicians stubbornly refused to see the clear signs of war, and refused to prepare in any way until it was almost too late.

Today, with the threat of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, does anyone believe western pols will be more willing to confront Chinese aggression?  It seems highly unlikely the U.S. would.  Everything we see about Americans today suggests that most would prefer to hide in their homes and hope for the best.

History seems to show that doesn't work out very well.  But Democrats and Leftists seem to feel it's a better plan.  We'll see.