You too can predict the future, at least on a large scale

I'd like to show you how one can predict future events.  It's a skill anyone can master, as you'll see.

A recent survey found that only 42 percent of Americans can even name the three branches of the federal government, let alone tell you the exact function of each.

Now it turns out "recent" is a relative term:  The survey was taken in 2006, so a dozen years ago.

Now, based on just the events you've watched unfold in the last dozen years, would you predict that today the percentage of Americans who can name the three branches of the federal government is higher than the 42% found in 2006, or lower?

Sure.  You know that even though the total amount spent on K-12 education has risen 30% since 2006, the nation's schools are teaching less and less of what's important, and more garbage (i.e. trivia or wastes of time).  You know that the number of attacks by black students on blacks who try to learn in school has risen exponentially, whichis likely to have reduced the amount of useful education black kids receive in school

You know that even though the media has lied to us for decades, it's gotten exponentially worse in the last dozen years.  So bottom line is, it's highly, highly likely that people would know more about government today than 12 years ago.

Admittedly, in the above example you were looking at how historical data probably changed over time, and you based your guess on what you've observed over the intervening dozen years; whereas  in trying to predict in 2006 youd have had to guess whether trends you could see in the five years before would continue, there's almost no difference.

My point is that it doesn't take magic to extrapolate trends.  The funny part is that so many talking heads and political leaders don't seem to be able to do that--judging by the easily-forecast horrible results of most of their ideas.