Dem pols have great plans for how to save San Francisco

"Vacant skyscrapers, empty trains: can San Francisco once again reinvent itself?"

With vacancy rates up and transit ridership down, some in San Francisco think the city as started a so-called ‘doom loop’. But some say its emptiness may be part of the solution, that an expedited conversion of office space residences could save downtown.

We're on the roof of Salesforce Park, an oasis among the skyscrapers in downtown San Francisco.  From this height the city looks like a futuristic utopia.

But the transit center underneath the building–newly built, announced with great fanfare before the China virus--that was supposed to bring workers here from all over the bay area, is empty.

The number of riders on the Bay Area transit system is around 40% of what it was before the pandemic.  The city’s public transit systems are collapsing under the weight of huge operating costs.  

But never fear, citizen, your rulers have found the solution:  All they need is... $5 BILLION and everything will be perfect.  

But without the bailout, service cuts to some of the city’s transit lines could start as soon as this summer.

Office vacancy rates in the first quarter of this year (2023) were between 26.4% and 29.4%, depending on who was counting. Pinterest, Meta, Reddit, Salesforce, Slack, Uber and Twitter have all vacated or reduced their office space.

But don't worry, citizen:  There is *absolutely nothing to worry about.*

The emptiness has sparked speculation by conservative crazies that the city has started a so-called “doom loop”--a vicious circle that could conceivably force it to cut social and transportation services, which would trigger other cuts, and...mumble mumble something.

San Francisco’s chief economist, Ted Egan, thinks the idea is silly. “To me a doom loop is Detroit in the 1970s. There’s nothing you can do to bring auto plants back.  And every auto plant that closes makes the next one want to close, so you get a cycle of disinvestment, and more people leave..."

His voice trailed off.  Quickly recovering, he said "There is nothing to worry about.  This is an entirely different scenario.  We're now a technical society, and the center of tech is San Francisco," he boomed.

He argued that despite layoffs in past months, the tech economy of the Bay Area is strong.  He claims there are more tech jobs in the city now than at the start of the pandemic. Unemployment in the city is the second lowest in the state, he said.

When asked what that unemployment rate was, he simply reiterated "Second lowest in the state."  But he admitted the city "faces significant challenges."  

Tech workers in the Bay Area embraced remote work more than any other region in the U.S.  For the restaurants and bars that served those workers, and the small businesses and retail that depended on foot traffic, the consequences were stark.

A study from U.C. Berkeley found that cell phone activity in downtown San Francisco is just 31% of what it was before the virus hit.

The slowdown has cut city tax revenue, which could spark cuts that will affect the entire city.  Downtown businesses accounted for nearly half the city’s sales tax revenue, and the city is now predicting a $780m budget deficit over the next two years.  But city leaders say there's absolutely nothing to worry about.

One of the reasons city pols are optimistic is that they say the high vacancy rate is "an opportunity to tackle this emergency in housing and homelessness."  Of course all local media absolutely *loved* that idea.

One state politician has proposed a new law that would eliminate the red tape that hinders the construction of new housing, fast-tracking the permitting process to convert offices into housing for the poor.

“If we’ve already approved an office building, we shouldn’t treat it as though it’s a new housing development and force it to go from square one with all the hearings, appeals and fees.  It’s in the public interest to put housing in a building that would otherwise be empty, so we’re going to essentially waive everything to make that happen.”

No one asked how the poor residents now ensconced in once-pricey real estate will afford to pay rent.  Activists know they won't have to:  "the homeless" will get free housing and utilities.  How this will solve the city's predicted deficit hasn't been explained--and of course won't be, because all Democrats need to win approval is good intentions.  Financial feasibility isn't a consideration.

The co-director of the Center for Mumble Mumble Research thinks residential conversion makes sense. “The city needs to make this a top priority," he said.

[Everyone interviewed gushed over the idea.]

The real hit to the city’s property taxes will start a few years from now as long-term office leases start to expire, if no one wants to lease the space. Right now the office vacancy rate is 35%, but rents aren’t budging as much as you’d expect in a market with such little demand and so much availability.

A local historian thinks real estate values are about to crater, but isn't worried. “The owners will lose money and will be jumping off buildings,” he said.  "But that’s fine. That’s capitalism, right?”

Sure enough, everywhere you go in the city, ruins of a former economy and culture now thrive in a completely new incarnation. A Navy shipyard becomes studios for hundreds of artists; an armory becomes an adult movie studio and then an event space; a church becomes a space for a roller skating disco party.

See?  Nothing to worry about.  Boom times are right around the corner, citizen.

Source.

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fus-news%2F2023%2Fmay%2F28%2Fsan-francisco-vacant-buildings-housing-doom-loop