February 14, 2023

If the interest rate on six-MONTH Treasurys is now over (redacted)%, is that good or bad?

How many of you know what the following statement--from today, from duh gruberment, via CNBC--means?

Treasury yields ticked higher, and the yield on the 6-month U.S. Treasury closed at 5.022%, above 5% for the first time since July 2007.

It means "your" (hahahahaha! only if you're a Democrat) gruberment is paying four times more interest on current "Treasuries" than a month before biden-harris-Dems took control of the entire gruberment..

"Wait...'more interest' is gud, right?  Mean we make mo' money when we buy dem Treasuries t'ings, eh?"

Dunno, bro.  Say, how many of doze t'ings you gots, eh?  

Jus' kiddin'.  Duh real concern is that in the next 12 months just the interest on our $32 TRILLION national debt is projected to be...well, we'll get to that below.  Or at least the lie the regime tells you.

If you want an excellent explanation of government borrowing, click here.

The HUGE caveat here is that the above article is from October 4th of last year.  They claimed the average interest rate on 10-year Treasurys (that's how the financial people spell 'em) was 1.4%.

Today the interest rate on six-month Treasurys is 5.022%.  And historically, long-term interest rates are slightly higher since it's hard to predict the future, and the people who buy ten-year Treasuries have a slightly higher risk.

"WAIT...doesn't that mean that if historic trends hold, the rate on long-term debt will soon be over 5%?"

Good job, citizen!  

In FY 2008 the interest on the debt was $253 billion, eating up 8.5% of the entire federal budget.

From 2009 to 2015, under emperor Barack the First, the national debt almost doubled, as public spending skyrocketed and revenue plummeted.  Yet due to the magic of free markets, and the luck of Obozo, the interest paid on the debt remained below $250 billion per year--BECAUSE interest rates declined. 

This incredible luck made corrupt, grifting congresswhores stop being concerned about spending.  (Just kidding--they were *never* concerned about deficit spending.)

In case you've forgotten, bidenfail took power in January of 2021.  He and his lackeys bleat that they inherited an ABSOLUTELY AWFUL economy, and have managed--due to brilliant Dem policies!--to fix it.  This, of course, is utter horse-shit.

For all of 2021 the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was below 2%.  As a result, even though public debt continued to grow uncontrollably (thanks to the Dems proposing one multi-TRILLION-dollar piece of shit law after another), the CBO estimated that the interest on the public debt was "only" $413 billion for fiscal year 2021. 

Biden and his lackeys released the budget for FY 2022 in the first half of 2021. The table below is from that budget.  And right away, folks who have been paying attention will notice some...unusual things.

First the national debt at the end of 2022 was already $32 TRILLION, compared to the figure of $26.5 trillion in the Dems' official budget.  Second, while the interest rate on ten-year Treasurys may have been below 2% in 2021, historically, long-term rates have been higher than short-term rates--and as you saw at the top, the six-MONTH rate is now 5.022%, suggesting that the ten-year rate will soon match that.


So what does all this mean?  It means that the total amount of interest the gruberment has agreed to pay on the national debt will soon be far, far greater than a measly half-trillion dollars.

To put it another way:  The official Democrat "estimates" shown in the offical budget are...wait for it...utter horse-shit.  But of course by the time interest payments alone reach a trillion dollars a year--a staggering one-eighth of all federal expenditures--the current corrupt regime will be out of office, and the Dems can blame it all on Trump--even if the Dems still control the government.

Of course the gruberment (commanded by congress) already spends more than it takes in every year.  So where do they think they'll get the money to pay extra half-trillion per year in interest, eh?

Simple, peasant: They plan to borrow it.

"Wait, I think I've known someone who got in a fix like that, with high credit-card debt.  They just borrowed more, and their debt went exponential!  They ended up having to file bankruptcy!"

Stop right there, citizen.  The average American has no idea what "exponential" means, so you must be some sort of "domestic violent extremist" or sumpin'.  You keep talkin' like that an' a dozen heavily-armed FBI agents gonna come to your door, shoot your dogs an' drag you off to jail like them Jay-six "insurrectionists!"  See, we kin borrow as much as we like, and it'll never go south on us.  Cuz we're from duh gubmint and most of us agents graduated from Hahvahd! 

Of course if we had an honest, competent congress they'd reduce spending to less than the government takes in every year.  But of course they won't do that, because the extra money buys votes and lines their pockets.  It's stunning how often even a low-IQ congress-creep enters office with a net worth of $50k and ten years later is worth $20 million or so.  They're not banking that from salary.

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