August 01, 2011

Dems: "Cutting spending will *slow* recovery" ??

I keep seeing statements by liberals/"progressives"/Democrat congresscritters to the effect that reducing govt spending "will slow economic recovery."

Interesting. I'd love to know the precise economic theory behind this statement. Of course everyone who's taken basic econ knows that classic Keynesianism regarded government ss *the* major "swing producer" when it comes to either spending more or spending less, so Keynes believed that virtually all economic control came from govt.

But it's worth noting that Keynes regarded businessmen with considerable contempt, believing that they were sort of 'hard-wired' to carry on the rather grubby business of making or selling or whatever it was they actually did, and that they would invariably continue to do so at roughly the same rate regardless of external conditions.

If that last strikes you as...let's say a bit simplistic, join the club.

I've been involved in small startup companies, and my personal experience and observation of others is that Keynes--an academic--was utterly clueless in this area. Thus any conclusions he made regarding business should probably be taken with a huge block of salt.

Translation: He didn't know jack-shit about business, nor about the folks who start 'em.

Point is, where do jobs come from? Well, no doubt government is hiring more and more Americans every day, but still (thank God) only about ten percent of Americans are actually employed by the government, including military. The rest of jobs come from the private sector.

For you liberals, that would be businesses.

If govt makes it harder or less rewarding for individuals to start businesses, then...brace yourselves, libs...fewer people will go to the considerable risk of starting one--or expanding an already-going concern. Which means...brace yourselves for another surprise...fewer jobs.

So what we have to this point are two countervailing forces: Keynesianism says government's the big *variable* determinant of the economy (he realized consumers were the biggest driver but saw no way for rational planners to change aggregate consumer spending by a significant amount), but the private sector typically creates about nine times more jobs, and is highly sensitive to government actions.

My sense of it is that if we can rein in govt spending and get our fiscal house back in order, more businesses are likely to start up or expand, increasing both employment and tax revenue.

By contrast, Dem/Libs are wailing that the current debt-ceiling deal will slow any economic recovery. Doesn't seem likely.

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