If Dems are really concedng anything to the GOP, it's probably a trap

Another blog noted that the Dems seem to be conceding to the Republicans on the solution to the debt ceiling "crisis." However, one commenter wasn't buying it: "Does anyone believe that the democrats would agree to a republican plan without an ace or two up their sleeves?"

Precisely. God love 'em, but Republicans--including our earnest, reasonably frugal, reasonably responsible Speaker of the House--remind me of pups chasing a passing car: Bark furiously, chase for a few yards, car speeds off and the pups think they've defeated it.

It may well be that our Speaker knows everything I'm about to say. If so he hasn't shown any indication, but he may just be a fabulous poker player. So here goes:

As the commenter noted, have any of you ever seen congressional Democrats simply concede to the GOP on *anything*, no matter how trivial? I can't recall a single instance. So what some conservative commenters think they're seeing--the *appearance* of a Democrat concession--is astronomically unlikely to be such.

While there are lots of traps one could envision the Dems preparing, they surely have three main objectives:

• 1) say and do anything to keep the debt ceiling issue off the radar before November of next year;
  
• 2) try to put all the responsibility for cutting spending (credit and blame both) on Republicans; and
  
• 3) if possible, eliminate several hundred billion dollars of tax incentives for various businesses that aren't Democrat supporters--oil and gas, coal, electric utilities, any manufacturing other than GM cars. But make a big show of repelling any efforts to hike taxes on Dem constituents--like the 50 percent of taxpayers who pay no fed income tax.

Of course the Republicans have repeatedly said "no new taxes", but I suspect that if they can win the spending cuts they seek, they'll conclude that eliminating the most egregious tax breaks ("incentives") for a few businesses isn't a hill worth defending.

So the game plan for Dems is to act as though they're conceding on every GOP point at this time. Then appear to fall back yet again when it comes to drafting the actual language of the bill in the House: Offer only nominal ideas and amendments, so that all the extremely UNpopular decisions on exactly what to cut are left to the GOP to make. Or else concede it's not possible, as the Dems have tacitly done.

The next step of for senate Dems to let their GOP colleagues know that they'll vote FOR the GOP bill, if only the GOP will agree to work with them over the next few months to end the most egregious tax breaks. I suspect the GOP would think they'd won the lottery, and would cheerfully agree.

Then the Dems in both chambers make a big show of holding a joint press conference with their GOP colleagues, at which they admit--with what appears to be a mood of chagrin--that the Republican arguments carried the day and that the Dems were forced to concede, on virtually every major point.

If the Dems get to that press conference without the GOP having seen the trap, it'll be too late.

If it goes according to plan, the GOP will end up having to decide exactly which cuts to make. For those under 30, that's *extremely* hard to do and has always been highly unpopular with voters. But the GOP will be forced by their "win" to make those decisions--and they voters are likely to remember (or be reminded) in 2012.

Further, the Dems can truthfully say that due to their great efforts, not even a nickel of cuts was made to either of the two programs most precious to Dems: SS and Medicare. Of course the GOP doesn't really want to cut Medicare and SS benefits in any case, but such an explanation won't get any traction with the Dem's base.

Finally, after the spending cut dust has settled, the Dems will call in the GOP promise--announced in public and with such fanfare--to eliminate the most egregious tax incentives. So Dems will get the tax increase they want, as the quid pro quo for saddling the Republicans with burden of making the tough, unpopular decisions on exactly what to cut from govt spending.

I'd like to claim some special insight but this is all so obvious a child could see it. So if y'all already did, 'scuse me for pointin' out the obvious.

Question is, 1) are the Dems brazen enough to run this sting; and 2) is the GOP leadership smart enough to see and avoid the trap?