Total U.S. births, 2024. See any trends?

If any group or nation wants to keep its population stable, the average female needs to have 2.1 children (to account for the fact that a tiny percentage of females die before reaching child-bearing age).  So an average of 2.1 children per woman is the "replacement rate."

Problem is, white U.S. women are no longer doing that.  The total population is increasing, of course, but all the increase is due to immigrants--mostly illegal.  The "total fertility rate" for ALL American citizens is about 1.7 children per woman, but for whites it's about 1.4--which is far below the replacement rate.

Average young American: "Dude, 1.4, vs. 2.1, close enough!"

Really?  No.  But maybe the graphic below will make the point:   

 

Note that the number of males up to 4 years old is about 2.5 million fewer than were born in 1990, and about the same for girls.  The yellow lines represent the number of current 0-to-4-year-olds likely to survive over time.  The lines tilt slightly because of deaths due to accident, disease, murders and--for males--combat.  The line for males is tilted more because more males die at every age from all those factors.

And keep in mind the graphic above is for ALL U.S. births.  (I'll try to find the same for white births but I doubt that's been done.)

The graphic below adds the trend lines on births.  As you see, if current trends continue, 20 years from now U.S. births will be down much more.  And again, that's ALL U.S. births.  The trend suggests white births will continue to fall, and will always be lower than black, Hispanic and immigrant births.

But don't worry, citizen.  Something will intervene, eh?