April 16, 2025

Expect a tidal wave of stories about recession; it was baked in a year ago

If you've been too busy to pay attention, you may not have noticed that the Mainstream Media loooves Democrats and hatesss conservatives.  It's always been that way.  So what's the reason for my mentioning something everyone should have long recognized, eh?

It's that in their eagerness to help the Democrat partei (sic) and trash conservatives, the Media always spins the news to favor their allies.  For example, back when bribem was in office (very few now believe he was running things), all you heard from the Media about "inflation" was "It's transient. (--a word rarely seen in the Media.) "Temporary."  "Has been stopped."

None of that was true, but it helped the Dems.  Now with Trump back in office you're seeing a LOT of articles wailing about inflation.  Hmmm...

I wanna focus on the growing number of stories about impending recession:  I suggest recession has been "locked in" since roughly a year ago, but you didn't hear a word about it, because it would have tanked the stock market.  But suddenly, with bribem out, we're seeing stories about recession.

To show this let's look at two indicators:  First is the price of gold.  I'm not a "gold bug," don't own any, but historically, when people are anxious about the economy they buy gold, believing it will hold its value better than stocks.  And if you look at the graph below you'll see that the price of gold has been rising since April of last year.  In fact it's up a staggering 43% or so, which suggests strong demand.


There was a brief period beginning election day when the price dropped for about a week, presumably as people realized the new president wasn't the moronic Harris.  But after that, even before Trump was inaugurated the price of gold resumed its steady increase--because the pro's knew recession was essentially locked in.

The second indicator is the price of oil.  With the middle-east in huge turmoil--risk of war rising--history says oil-importing nations--fearing a disruption--should have been bidding up the price of oil.  Yet we've seen the price falling fairly steadily.  It's down 33% from a year ago.  What could account for this?  Democrats will claim it's because world demand has fallen due to strong sales of those faaaabulous battery-powered EVs.  But data don't show that.  Instead we see industrial consumption falling ever so slightly.

Why would industry be using less oil?  Because they're cutting output just a bit.  Yet population continues to grow, so you'd think businesses would be nudging production UP a percent or so per year.  Nope.  Hmmm...

Not all manufacturing plants use oil or gas, but they all use enormous amounts of electricity, and the government keeps track of those numbers.  I predict we're already seeing a flattening of that demand.  Will check and update later.

But there's another reason for the explosion of stories about "impending recession:"  Reporters know very well which experts to interview to get whatever quote and viewpoint they want.  And they also know--very well--that articles quoting "economists" and assorted experts wailing about "impending recession stoke fears of recession in investors.  And what effect do ya think that has on the stock market?

Sure: and if the market staggers, who'll get blamed?  Sure: the president.  It's why you never saw stories about "recession" when bribem was in the Oval Office.  You saw stories about big companies--including Meta and Fakebook--laying off thousands.  But those stories never hinted that this might signal a recession.  Eh, maybe no economist connected the dots.  Yeh, dat's it.  

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