A tale about a climate guru whose prediction have always been wrong
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/conrad-black-thirty-years-of-climate-hysterics-being-proven-wrong-over-and-over-again
30 years ago Dr. James Hansen, head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, testified to a Senate committee that a heat wave irritating Washington was caused by a new thing: “the greenhouse effect." It was the start of a huge debate about whether the planet was warming, and if so, how much; and if so, what was causing it?
Every member of the environmental movement--most of whom had no grasp of the scientific issues involved--immediately supported Hansen.
Hansen described three possible scenarios for the world’s climate: Business as usual, he said, would produce a one degree Celsius increase in the world’s temperature in 30 years--i.e. today. The second case, that emissions would increase at the same rate they had achieved in 1988, would produce a world temperature increase of seven-tenths of one degree Celsius by now. And the last case was that IF carbon emissions could be reduced after 2000, we'd get a slight increase in temperature until 2000, but stable temperature afterwards.
So what's happened since 1988?
Carbon dioxide in the atomosphere continued to increase at exactly the same rate as it had since 1964, and yet...the world has only warmed a tenth of a degree or so since 1988, and not by a statistically significant amount since 2000, apart from 2015-2016; then the temperature rose slightly after an unusually strong El Nino, and then fell again even as carbon emissions continued to increase.
The same predictions were made by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
As the predictions of both were defied by reality, Hansen reinforced his predictions of climate doom: In 2007 he predicted that within 100 year all Greenland’s ice would melt and ocean levels would rise by 22 feet. While only a dozen years have passed since his prediction, no ice has been lost in Greenland, other than what melts every summer and then forms again. Sea levels have not risen appreciably.
Undaunted, Hansen predicted that hurricanes and tornadoes would increase in number AND become stronger--a prediction quickly repeated by virtually every mainstream media outlet. While strong storms obviously continue to happen, they're neither more numerous nor stronger.
Given that Hansen’s predictions have all bombed, you might think he might have recanted. Of course he hasn't.
Every serious person agrees that humans must be good stewards of the world and its environment.
But there is no justification whatever for the nonsense of the Paris climate accord, where the administration of president Barack Obama committed to saddle American industry with costs of tens of billions of dollars to reduce carbon emissions, while simultaneously letting the world’s main offenders, China and India, do nothing.
The lessons of all this are clear, but Democrat politicians and virtually all academics continue to call for the deindustrialization of the West.
Economic suicide is only tempting to those who have forgotten what pre-industrial life was like.
===
H/T Conrad Black
30 years ago Dr. James Hansen, head of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, testified to a Senate committee that a heat wave irritating Washington was caused by a new thing: “the greenhouse effect." It was the start of a huge debate about whether the planet was warming, and if so, how much; and if so, what was causing it?
Every member of the environmental movement--most of whom had no grasp of the scientific issues involved--immediately supported Hansen.
Hansen described three possible scenarios for the world’s climate: Business as usual, he said, would produce a one degree Celsius increase in the world’s temperature in 30 years--i.e. today. The second case, that emissions would increase at the same rate they had achieved in 1988, would produce a world temperature increase of seven-tenths of one degree Celsius by now. And the last case was that IF carbon emissions could be reduced after 2000, we'd get a slight increase in temperature until 2000, but stable temperature afterwards.
So what's happened since 1988?
Carbon dioxide in the atomosphere continued to increase at exactly the same rate as it had since 1964, and yet...the world has only warmed a tenth of a degree or so since 1988, and not by a statistically significant amount since 2000, apart from 2015-2016; then the temperature rose slightly after an unusually strong El Nino, and then fell again even as carbon emissions continued to increase.
The same predictions were made by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
As the predictions of both were defied by reality, Hansen reinforced his predictions of climate doom: In 2007 he predicted that within 100 year all Greenland’s ice would melt and ocean levels would rise by 22 feet. While only a dozen years have passed since his prediction, no ice has been lost in Greenland, other than what melts every summer and then forms again. Sea levels have not risen appreciably.
Undaunted, Hansen predicted that hurricanes and tornadoes would increase in number AND become stronger--a prediction quickly repeated by virtually every mainstream media outlet. While strong storms obviously continue to happen, they're neither more numerous nor stronger.
Given that Hansen’s predictions have all bombed, you might think he might have recanted. Of course he hasn't.
Every serious person agrees that humans must be good stewards of the world and its environment.
But there is no justification whatever for the nonsense of the Paris climate accord, where the administration of president Barack Obama committed to saddle American industry with costs of tens of billions of dollars to reduce carbon emissions, while simultaneously letting the world’s main offenders, China and India, do nothing.
The lessons of all this are clear, but Democrat politicians and virtually all academics continue to call for the deindustrialization of the West.
Economic suicide is only tempting to those who have forgotten what pre-industrial life was like.
===
H/T Conrad Black
posted by SF at
8:41 PM
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