A modest plan to reform SS and Medicare

Social Security and Medicare are the two main programs that are eating our lunch, financially speaking. Now, I don't doubt that the pols who created both programs had good intentions, but after much analysis I think both were doomed to exactly the outcome we see today: out of control costs that threaten to bankrupt the government.

Let me explain: It's well known that 95 percent of politicians will say and do anything to get elected and re-elected. Thus when constituents pleaded for the programs to be expanded to provide this or that new benefit for them, the pols didn't hesitate to give 'em your money.

No one seems to been both mathematically astute enough and grinchy enough to have said "Hey, wait--if you add this and that, and don't increase taxes to pay for the new benefits, eventually the system will go belly-up."

And of course it wouldn't have done any good if someone *had* said that, since politicians are notoriously unwilling to pay attention to reality when they want to do something.

But a second flaw would have doomed the two programs even if pols had done the right thing for the country instead of merely cashing their checks: Both programs depended on a pyramid-shaped population mix, with an ever-growing population of new tax-payers entering the system each year, supporting the small number of (usually) older people at the top. When that stopped happening, doom was inevitable.

The third fatal flaw was fraud: The amount of discovered Medicare/medicaid fraud, and SS disability fraud, is staggering. And no one believes we've found more than a small fraction of the true amount.

A system with a very large "design margin" could survive some fraud. But in a system crippled by multi-billions in bogus claims, plus fewer than expected numbers of people paying into the system's coffers, no such margin existed. So the fraud alone would have doomed the programs.

So how do we extricate ourselves? Well, it's neither simple nor painless, but I'd suggest a combination of "means testing" (the system wouldn't pay you if your income was more than X per year) and a graduated cut that would shave benefits by just a percent or two for those who get the least per month, increasing linearly up to, say, a 15 percent cut for those receiving the maximum monthly benefit.

I do realize that cutting even two percent from the poor will be generate a firestorm of protest, but I think everyone needs to be seen as having some skin in the game, no matter how nominal. Also, it seems certain that local charities could pretty easily compensate for a two percent cut in someone currently receiving, say, $600 per month. Since that would be just 12 bucks per month.

The problem with conceding that people receiving less than X per month shouldn't have their benefits reduced even a nominal, tiny amount is that once that door is open, everyone argues that X should be set higher and higher, reducing the benefit of the reform.

Next, pass a law that anyone convicted of SS disability fraud would get a mandatory ten years in jail. Couple that with a year-long amnesty IF fraudsters declared the full amount and made full restitution.

Medicare: Start by declaring a one-year program of no-penalty, no-jail amnesty for past or current fraud--providing that those wanting amnesty declare and repay the entire amount stolen. Harsh? Perhaps. But we're talking about national survival here.

Combine the amnesty with assessment of fines equal to three times any proven fraudulent amounts stolen for those not taking the confession/amnesty route. Plus stiff jail time. See if the combination coaxes a few million out of the woodwork.

Next, start eliminating procedures that the system will pay for. Patients who were grossly overweight shouldn't expect taxpayers to pony up for a new heart or knee replacement unless and until they got back to a reasonable weight. Otherwise it's pretty much closing portholes on the Titanic.

Draconian? Perhaps. But at some point, when there's not enough money to do everything, someone has to start making tough decisions with taxpayer money.

Problem with all the above is that the Dems won't go along, because they'd rather the whole country blow up than be seen as cracking down on fraudsters and minorities.

Oh well. I've lived a great life, and have no kids to grieve for. And I tried to show y'all a way to keep it solvent. C'est la vie.