If election were held today, Obama would....

If you're a conservative, you may not like what you're about to read. But unlike most liberals/Democrats/"progressives" we prefer to confront uncomfortable facts straight-on instead of pretending they're not there. So....

Gallup's latest poll of Obama's approval rating shows that he's above 50% in just 16 states. That initially sounds pretty good for our side, but unfortunately those states have a lot of electoral votes.

Moreover, it's been shown that incumbents almost always do better than the polling results when matched against a specific candidate instead of a generic member of the opposing party. Thus once the Republican nominee is known, we can expect Obama's support to rise a couple of percent.

So as a first hack, if we assign Obama the electoral votes of the states where he currently has at least a 48% approval rating, he'd win 263 electoral votes.

Takes 270 to win.

That's not bad news for us--frankly, given the percentage of idiots in the electorate I'm amazed that Obama's not leading by 20 or so.

However, if one more smallish state (7 or more EVs) goes blue--or if the "generic vs. specific opponent" effect actually turns out to be worth 3% or more instead of two percent as I've assumed--then Obama wins. Again, based on Gallup results of a week ago.

The above results are not cause for wailing and rending of garments. What they tell us is that we'll have to make a maximum effort next November to prevent this clever Kenyan socialist from getting another four years to continue destroying our long-suffering nation.